aiseoneilFeb 26, 20229 min readEvidence of Slowdown in HousingIt’s pretty clear that home prices have been growing rather quickly. However, recent evidence suggests that home prices will not grow for...
aiseoneilFeb 26, 20223 min readMister, We Could Use a Man Like Herbert Hoover AgainI’m very interested in the Hoover Institution, a right-wing think tank supported by Stanford University. In this post I will explore its...
aiseoneilFeb 12, 20225 min readA Lot of Economic Data is Misleading Right NowOn Monday, February 7th you might have heard that the unemployment rate for January was 4.0%. This isn’t technically true. The actual...
aiseoneilFeb 9, 20227 min readWhy is TALF 2 Less Controversial?Americans get less upset now about big government bailouts of financial institutions than they used to. During the Great Recession the...
aiseoneilDec 8, 20219 min readIn the Next Crisis, Your Tax Dollars Might Buy BitcoinIn response to the “Savings and Loans Crisis” of the late 1980s and early 1990s, and the 2008 recession/housing bubble pop, the US...
aiseoneilNov 13, 20212 min readInflation Was TransitoryInflation has been surprisingly high recently, at least according to some measures. The main argument made by those who say you shouldn’t...
aiseoneilNov 13, 20216 min readHow Important Was Fiscal Stimulus in Terms of Overall Spending, Employment and InflationIt is clear that the US economy is experiencing a dramatic job-market recovery and substantial inflationary pressures. In this article I...
aiseoneilOct 30, 20219 min readMy ApologiesIn my first blog post, I claimed hyperinflation was not a threat. While I maintain that hyperinflation is not a feasible near-term risk...
aiseoneilOct 4, 20218 min readThe Right-Wing Tax ScamYou might have heard that tax cuts on “savings” like reductions in the corporate, dividend or capital gains tax increase national savings...
aiseoneilSep 2, 20216 min readHas the Stock Market "Detached" From the "Real Economy"?You may have heard someone claim that the stock market has detached from the “Real Economy.” Generally this is stated in a disdainful way...
aiseoneilAug 6, 20213 min readThere Are no Free LunchesA recent OpEd article published by the Hill proposes taxing foreign investment to the United States. It refers to such a tax as a Market...
aiseoneilJul 26, 20214 min readRising Car Costs Are Likely Not Because of Rising Semiconductor CostsOver the past year, car prices have risen dramatically. A lot of reporting on the subject centers on a semiconductor shortage as the...
aiseoneilJul 23, 20217 min readThe FED Does Make Inequality Worse But Not the Way You've Been ToldA recent New York Times OpED written by a Federalist Society employee claimed that by keeping interest rates low, the FED is increasing...
aiseoneilJul 20, 20217 min readWhen Deficits Do Leave a Burden For Our ChildrenJohn Shwarz recently wrote an Op Ed at the Intercept entitled The Idea That Deficit Spending Is a Burden On Our Children is the Dumbest...
aiseoneilJul 8, 20212 min readSeasonal Adjustements Likely Overstated Labor Force Growth, at Least in MayIn an earlier blog post of mine, I predicted that the May and June jobs report would overstate job performance. The logic was that...
aiseoneilJun 28, 20216 min readUnderstanding the Debt CeilingThe Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently warned Congress about the threats of the debt ceiling not being raised. This was a bit...
aiseoneilJun 25, 20217 min readWill the Yield Curve Still be Helpful Going Forward?The Federal Treasury Yield Curve has historically been useful in predicting recessions in the United States. However, I think there are...
aiseoneilJun 21, 20212 min readThe FED's Actions Have Already Hurt the Raw Materials Industry #2: Commodity PricesI have covered in a previous blog post how the effects of the FED’s monetary policy actions have been to cause a depreciation in all...
aiseoneilJun 21, 20214 min readThe FED's Actions Have Already Hurt the Raw Materials Industry #1: Currency DepreciationA recent FED meeting moved up interest rates. This has led to a series of effects which, while still ongoing, have resulted in a notable...
aiseoneilJun 17, 20217 min readThe FED Hit the Panick ButtonOn Wednesday the 16th of June, the FED prioritized fighting inflation over fighting unemployment. This happened six days after a CPI...
