aiseoneil
Evidence of Slowdown in Housing
It’s pretty clear that home prices have been growing rather quickly. However, recent evidence suggests that home prices will not grow for...
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Mister, We Could Use a Man Like Herbert Hoover Again
I’m very interested in the Hoover Institution, a right-wing think tank supported by Stanford University. In this post I will explore its...
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A Lot of Economic Data is Misleading Right Now
On Monday, February 7th you might have heard that the unemployment rate for January was 4.0%. This isn’t technically true. The actual...
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Why is TALF 2 Less Controversial?
Americans get less upset now about big government bailouts of financial institutions than they used to. During the Great Recession the...
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In the Next Crisis, Your Tax Dollars Might Buy Bitcoin
In response to the “Savings and Loans Crisis” of the late 1980s and early 1990s, and the 2008 recession/housing bubble pop, the US...
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Inflation Was Transitory
Inflation has been surprisingly high recently, at least according to some measures. The main argument made by those who say you shouldn’t...
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How Important Was Fiscal Stimulus in Terms of Overall Spending, Employment and Inflation
It is clear that the US economy is experiencing a dramatic job-market recovery and substantial inflationary pressures. In this article I...
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My Apologies
In my first blog post, I claimed hyperinflation was not a threat. While I maintain that hyperinflation is not a feasible near-term risk...
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The Right-Wing Tax Scam
You might have heard that tax cuts on “savings” like reductions in the corporate, dividend or capital gains tax increase national savings...
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Has the Stock Market "Detached" From the "Real Economy"?
You may have heard someone claim that the stock market has detached from the “Real Economy.” Generally this is stated in a disdainful way...
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There Are no Free Lunches
A recent OpEd article published by the Hill proposes taxing foreign investment to the United States. It refers to such a tax as a Market...
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Rising Car Costs Are Likely Not Because of Rising Semiconductor Costs
Over the past year, car prices have risen dramatically. A lot of reporting on the subject centers on a semiconductor shortage as the...
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The FED Does Make Inequality Worse But Not the Way You've Been Told
A recent New York Times OpED written by a Federalist Society employee claimed that by keeping interest rates low, the FED is increasing...
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When Deficits Do Leave a Burden For Our Children
John Shwarz recently wrote an Op Ed at the Intercept entitled The Idea That Deficit Spending Is a Burden On Our Children is the Dumbest...
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Seasonal Adjustements Likely Overstated Labor Force Growth, at Least in May
In an earlier blog post of mine, I predicted that the May and June jobs report would overstate job performance. The logic was that...
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Understanding the Debt Ceiling
The Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently warned Congress about the threats of the debt ceiling not being raised. This was a bit...
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Will the Yield Curve Still be Helpful Going Forward?
The Federal Treasury Yield Curve has historically been useful in predicting recessions in the United States. However, I think there are...
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The FED's Actions Have Already Hurt the Raw Materials Industry #2: Commodity Prices
I have covered in a previous blog post how the effects of the FED’s monetary policy actions have been to cause a depreciation in all...
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The FED's Actions Have Already Hurt the Raw Materials Industry #1: Currency Depreciation
A recent FED meeting moved up interest rates. This has led to a series of effects which, while still ongoing, have resulted in a notable...
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The FED Hit the Panick Button
On Wednesday the 16th of June, the FED prioritized fighting inflation over fighting unemployment. This happened six days after a CPI...
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